Monday, August 27, 2012

BF444 aka The Million Dollar Man



  1. You're my hero!!!!! Too bad you still cannot properly spell 'pet peeve'! +127 & change per Win isn't really plausible with your biggest win only being $1,400.00! Hell, I won a $1,600.00 & $1,200.00 within a 4-day span @ FanDuel, in MLB, last season!

    Let's all say it together...."Photo-Shopped"!!!

    Still, you're my hero - among true 'degens'!

    Read a real blog.....

    Unless your IQ is above 135, you've probably never heard of 'data trees'. Think of what a tree looks like? It's tall and it has branches. When developing any kind of 'system' (grading system or otherwise), you must do two things to create your 'data trees' - you must integrate the ability to 'Qualify' & 'Quantify' whatever it is you're trying to notice patterns in.

    Example: Because the Gators are so inexperienced at the QB position, I've made a 'Discretionary Call' that they are a 'C' grade team instead of a 'B' (A=5, B=4, C=3, etc.). That is a quantification & qualification.

    I've 'qualified' them as a 'C' TEAM, and their associated 'grade' (for the type of team I believe they'll be), is the 'quantification'.

    Now, Let's say an 'A' TEAM is playing a 'D' TEAM. Obviously, there's a talent disparity, correct? So, now the questions become much more direct. Such as: Will the Offensive Line from the A-Team be able to dominate? What is the history (ATS) between these two teams? Who has the Greater SOS? Which team has more offensive prowess? Which team allows fewer PPG? I think all of you get the point. And your list of 'Discretionary Call' questions can go on further, if you wanted.

    It's this laundry list of intangibles that is the handicapping process, once you've created clear lines of delineation between both squads.

    Next, is a closer look at the 'read between the lines' numbers (at least in my personal handicapping).

    Example: Which team has the better T.O.P. (Time of Possession) numbers? Does either QB possess a 4 to 1 or better TD Pass to Int ratio? Which team has the better +/- turnover ratio? And once again, your 'Tree' can have as many branches of data as you desire!

    Now with regard to my PSM (Predictive Scoring Model)/"Grading System".....

    5, 17, 22 = what? It equates to a clear pattern of three consecutive ascending grades, or "Progression".

    Let's assume that the team above has played 8-games on their schedule and the above-mentioned grades were from their L-3 games. 5/17 = 29.4, or a 70.6% increase - from 3-games ago (5) to that next/(17) graded game.

    Next, said team goes from a 17 to a 22, and some more 'Progression'. 17/22 = 77.3, or 100-77.3 is a 22.7% improvement, or progression.

    These are prime teams to BET AGAINST!!!! Why? Because, in theory, they are 'due' to regress!

    70.6 + 22.7 = 93.30/2(WIN-LOSE Variant) = 46.65, or, said team should regress in their next game by an estimated 47% in their upcoming affair.

    Just to keep the math simple, we'll say a 50% reduction, from their most recent grade of (22). That would equal an (11).

    Finally, if we know what an (11) grade equals in terms of probable points scored, then, we now have a BI (Basic Initial) score for them. After that, it's simply a matter of making a few 'Discretionary Adjustments' and you'll arrive at a projection that you will feel is accurate!

    In this screen shot below, my mentor (JOSEPH J. TUTTLE) only gave a +1 to SC, and a -7 to Vanderbilt. He arrived at the final score of (31-20); after originally showing a (30-27) win by S. Carolina.

    I truly hope that this helped.


    Ted Forest

  2. This post proves your entire life is meaningless. A million in winnings and less than 8 grand profit. LMAO what a colossal waste